Who is Afraid of AI? Who Should Be?

This policy brief was first published by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

Occupations that are highly cognitive, non-physical, and low in social interaction — typically higher-skill white-collar roles such as data analysts, software developers, and translators — turn out to be highly AI-exposed.
Occupations requiring manual dexterity or intensive interpersonal contact — such as construction labourers or nursing aides — remain among the least exposed to current AI technologies.
Aggregate occupational exposure to AI has risen markedly since 2010, with especially rapid gains in the late 2010s and early 2020s.
Our baseline estimates show no detectable effect of AI exposure on total firm employment, while it is associated with clear skill upgrading.

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